Friday, June 26, 2009

'Fire below the ashes'

Eerie calm masks Iran tensions
BBC: It has been much quieter these last few days. One elderly witness said she felt it was the calm of the grave... When you ask Iranians about the way this might go, a phrase keeps cropping up. They say it might seem quiet to an outsider, but there is fire below the ashes.

Mohsen Makhmalbaf, The Guardian: Some suggest the protests will fade because nobody is leading them. All those close to Mousavi have been arrested, and his contact with the outside world has been restricted. People rely on word of mouth, because their mobile phones and the Internet have been closed down. That they continue to gather shows they want something more than an election. They want freedom, and if they are not granted it we will be faced with another revolution...

All the armed forces of Iran are only enough to repress one city, not the whole country. The people are like drops of water coming together in a sea.

Iran's New Revolutionaries
Babak Sarfarez, TehranBureau: In the past few weeks, millions of Iranians have voted with their feet, marched peacefully, experienced mass catharsis, pitched street battles and defied the government's edicts with increasing confidence. Before the crackdown, they got a taste of freedom and personal empowerment, and they won't soon forget it...

The Green Wave -- the name chosen by Moussavi for his movement -- is a multigenerational, multiethnic and multiclass phenomenon, though with a strong, urban, middle-class accent. It is also composed of men and women in roughly equal numbers... It has a critical component that is the linchpin of the entire movement: a class of young revolutionaries who have sustained it through difficult times. Many of these young men and women are between 18 and 24; they sport green armbands and masks, and they are fearless. Before the Revolutionary Guards stepped into the fray on June 20, the young militants of the Green Wave withstood days of unrelenting attacks by the fanatic Basij militia and the regular riot police.

What powers this new militancy?... Nearly every young person in Iran, particularly young women, can recount dozens of stories of humiliation and discrimination... For them, each rock thrown at the police, each hand-to-hand combat with the militiamen and vigilantes, each confrontation with the heavily armed Revolutionary Guards is not just an act of political defiance but a cathartic experience of personal liberation....

These new young revolutionaries are sophisticated and canny. They have few illusions about the magnitude of the problems facing their country or the complexities of living in a highly traditional and religious society... Despite the fact that they are overwhelmingly secular, their slogans mingle political and religious themes to avoid alienating the faithful...

In the days and weeks to come, this infant movement will face difficult challenges. It may suffer some setbacks and reversals, but what matters is the experience it has gained. At this stage, it is doubtful that fear alone can contain the rising tide of discontent or return things to the status quo ante.
Image source here.