Four harsh truths about climate change
Gwynne Dyer: About two years ago, I realized that militaries in various countries were starting to do climate-change scenarios in-house -- scenarios that started with the scientific predictions about rising temperatures, falling crop yields, and other physical effects...
The scenarios predicted failed states proliferating because governments couldn't feed their people; waves of climate change refugees washing up against the borders of more fortunate countries; and even wars between countries that share rivers.
So I started interviewing everybody I could get access to, not only senior military people but scientists, diplomats, and politicians. About 70 interviews, a dozen countries, and 18 months later, I have reached four conclusions...
1. The scientists are really scared. Their observations over the past two or three years suggest that everything is happening a lot faster than climate models predicted...
2. The generals are right. Food is the key issue, and the world food supply is already very tight...
3. There is a point of no return after which warming becomes unstoppable -- and we are probably going to sail right through it...
4. There is a way through this crisis, but it isn't easy and there is no guarantee of success. As the Irishman said to the lost traveller: 'If that's where you want to go, sir, I wouldn't start from here.'
